SMM5, 30 May: the 16th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum, sponsored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Financial work, was held at the Shanghai International Convention Center on May 28. At the Shangyan Nonferrous Forum in the afternoon, Cui Lin, chief representative of the International Tin Association in China, analyzed the current tin market.
Tin prices have been fluctuating in the past three years, especially in China, and have fluctuated between 140000 and 155000 in the past two years.
Domestic tin consumption is relatively weak, but it is growing abroad.
At present, the consumption of tin is relatively weak, especially in the environment of trade war between China and the United States. At present, there are two divisions in tin consumption, domestic tin consumption has declined, but foreign tin consumption has increased.
Forecast tin consumption: China and other regions:
The weakness of domestic tin consumption is mainly due to the outward transfer of domestic industry. At present, many electronics and manufacturing industries with tin as raw materials are transferred to Vietnam and other countries, and domestic tin consumption is also transferred overseas.
According to Cui Lin, affected by macro factors, domestic tin consumption is bound to continue to decline this year, the current market is generally believed to be down 5% compared with the same period last year. However, for overseas markets, it is relatively optimistic, but the specific results have to be adjusted according to the development of the macro-economy as a whole.
The mine output is still declining at the supply side.
For now, producers have been stable in the long run, such as steady supply in Indonesia and China over the past three years, but the Chinese concentrate market has been strained by the closure of Yinman mines and falling imports from Myanmar.
Cui Lin predicted that in 2019, China's concentrate production is expected to decline slightly, Yinman will reduce production by 3000 tons, Guangxi will recover slightly, with a total decline of about 2000 tons, and domestic refined tin production is also decreasing. Indonesia's export restrictions may run through the whole year. Tin production in Myanmar has peaked.
Some new tin supplies are also online, and geographically, mine supplies are changing, shifting to Africa and Australia, and current operations are expanding mine life, such as B2 tailings projects-St. Raphael Mine, Colkiri Mine.
Overall, Cui Lin believes that "although the future price may depend more on the follow-up development of economic and trade issues, but the lower support level is still relatively strong."
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